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Formal notes: LS live longshot, PP preferred Play, BAL Bombs Away Longshot, BCL Boxcar Longshot, PS fits the Pro Simulcast spot play method.  MA means that it fits the Pace Shape method, POP Power Pace Method.

 

 

 

 

 

The Diamond System had the $12.60 winner of the Belmont stakes on top. I picked him third. My picks were Meantime, Irish War Cry, Tapwrit, and Patch (9-7-2-12) and it came out 2-7-12. It's funny because I thought it was a puzzling race to handicap, but I ended up having the right horses. I went with Meantime because he was the Pace Shape Pick (based on the main longshot system in my Pace Handicapping Longshots book). Meantime also looked good on the Power Pace Figures. I figured that Tapwrit and Irish War Cry had a shot and the race set up well for Tapwrit with Meantime and Irish War Cry attending the pace. Some may wonder why I didn't include Gormley. Even though his Santa Anita Derby win earned a solid Diamond Rating, I was suspicious of the race. The final time was slow. Although the TM VAR (Trackmaster Variant) was 20, indicating a slow track, I usually lean towards the horses that ran fast times. Gormley won the S.A. Derby going 9 furlongs in 1:51 which is simply not a GR1 time. I've mentioned this several times in my books, I prefer horses that ran fast raw fractions and times.

The Diamond System gave Gormley a solid rating because of the quick pace, but another reason why I was suspicious was his DI EG (Diamond Energy) of 30.8, which would be an ideal energy rating for a 7 furlong or 1 mile race, but not for a one and a half mile race. To be honest, I didn't feel confident in my analysis of the Belmont, but as my son Rob said, "after 60 years of doing this professionally, you should be confident in your picks." Actually, it's only 40 years, ha ha.  It certainly helps to have the systems that I've developed over the years. 

The Diamond System - Belmont Stakes

 

The Pace Shape Method does it again!

 

Pandy's Preakness analysis: 

 

PIMLICO

RACE 13 - THE PREAKNESS STAKES

5 CLASSIC EMPIRE 5-2
4 ALWAYS DREAMING 6-5
2 CLOUD COMPUTING 12-1 (MA)
10 CONQUEST MO MONEY 12-1

CLASSIC EMPIRE had a brutal trip in the Derby, he got bounced around badly at the start, suffered a injury to his eye during the race, then had to rally wide, alter course in the stretch, and he finished gamely on a part of the track on the outside that may not have been the best footing over the sloppy track; he should get a better trip in this more compact field...ALWAYS DREAMING ran a strong race in racehorse time winning the Florida Derby and backed up that sharp performance with a rather easy win in the Derby. The two likely pacesetters appears to be either Always Dreaming or Conquest Mo Money, and I wouldn't be surprised of Johnny V sends the favorite to the lead and tries to wire the field...CLOUD COMPUTING has only raced three times but showed strong pace figures in all three starts including last when he raced three wide stalking the pace in the Wood Memorial. he continues to train well, picks up Castellano, and may be set for a forward move at a price. This horse is the Pace Shape Method Longshot pick in here, that from my book, Pace Handicapping Longshots. The Pace Shape Method picked Oxbow $32.80 to win the 2013 Preakness, and a few weeks later, Palace Malice $29.60 won the Belmont stakes as the Pace Shape Method pick. It's a potent longshot indicator and Cloud Computing fits the method...CONQUEST MO MONEY has never run a bad race. Last time out he stepped up in class to the Arkansas Derby, set a pressured pace and held gamely to finish a half length behind Classic Empire. He'll have to be used leaving from this post but he is capable of stalking, or he could be on the lead again

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EP TEST (left number is race number, right number is horse number, if there are two numbers, that means two horses fit the criteria), 4-1 final odds or better. This should work best in dirt sprints but I'm also testing dirt routes and turf sprints. 

Results: 2 for 31, bet $62 to win, returned $82.60....bet $62.00 to place, returned $63.80, bet $58.00 to show, returned $65.40...win return betting all despite final odds, 2 for 35, bet $70.00, return $82.60

Testing - Friday, April 14

 

HAWTHORNE

1). 6

OAKLAWN

4). 5
5). 6, 7

 

Testing - Sunday, March 26

 

AQUEDUCT

1). dirt route 3 (9-1 out)
2). dirt route 4 (42-1 out)
6). dirt route 4 (9-1 out)
7). 4 (12-1 out)
9). 1A and 9 (7-1 and 9-1 out)

OAKLAWN

2). 8 (35-1, ran third, $13.80 show)
3). 11 (19-1 out)
4). route race 3 (6-1 out)
7). route race 5 (9-1 out)

TAMPA

2). 6 (36-1 out)
3). 6 (26-1 out)

GULFSTREAM

5). turf sprint 3 (12-1, ran second, $11.20, $6.40)
7). turf sprint 3 (30-1 out)
11). turf sprint 2 (6-1, ran third, $3.20 show)

FAIRGROUNDS

1). 4 (45-1 out)
3). dirt route 7 (12-1 out)
5). 7 (5-1, ran second, $7.00, $4.80)
6). turf sprint 3 (won, $23.60, $9.00, $4.40)
7). dirt route 1A (5-1, ran second, $5.20, $3.20)

 

 

 

 

Testing - Sunday, March 19

FAIR GROUNDS


10). 8 (6-1 odds, set pace, out)

OAKLAWN

6). 8 (5-1, set pace, out)

 

 

Testing - Thursday, March 9

OAKLAWN

2). 6 (18-1 out)

 

Testing - Sunday, March 5

EP TEST (left number is race number, right number is horse number, if there are two numbers, that means two horses fit the criteria), 4-1 final odds or better

Results: 1 for 12, bet $24.00 to win, returned $59.00....bet $24.00 to place, returned $31.60, bet $20.00 to show, returned $29.60...win return betting all despite final odds, 1 for 16, bet $32.00, return $59.00

 

GULFSTREAM

7). 2 (11-1, set pace, tired)

LAUREL

4). 5 (speed and faded at 2-1, odds too low)

Testing something - Saturday, March 4

FAIR GROUNDS

4). 5 (off the board at 8-5 odds, odds too low)
10). 11 (ran third at 17-1 odds and paid $10.00 to show)

 

 

Testing something - Sunday, February 26

EP TEST (left number is race number, right number is horse number, if there are two numbers, that means two horses fit the criteria)

FAIR GROUNDS

6). 6 (34-1, out)

TAMPA BAY

5). 11 (wow, $59.00 to win, $24.00 to place, $8.40 to show)

LAUREL

7). 8, 6 (both out, 6 went off at 5-2 odds and would be a no bet for this system, 8 went off at 7-1)

OAKLAWN

2). 3 (ran 2nd, $7.60 place, $7.00 show)
3). 10 (route race, ran 3rd, $4.20 show)
4). 1 (went off 7-2, too low for this type of a system, ran third, $4.20 to show)
6). 7 (6-1 out)
7). 5 (23-1 out)

 

 

 

 

...Friday, I listed free picks and note that the Best Bet won again at 5-1 odds ad keyed a cold late double (below)

 

Sharphorses Selection Service


Friday, February 24

 

 

AQUEDUCT

 

  1. READ THE DREAM, ALTESINO, YUMMY BEAR (2-4-1)

  2. JOHN'S ISLAND, MONSTER MASH, IMA WILDCAT (1-3-5)

  3. BREEZE BURNER, HE CAN DANCE, TEN TWENTY NINE (2-1-3)

  4. BI LICAN CAN BABE, ABOUNDING SPIRIT (6-8-4)

  5. SARATIAGO, FLY ASH, BOOMERANG BECKY, CHOCOLATE SMOOTHIE (8-4-6-7)

  6. BOURBON EMPIRE, DYNAMAX PRIME, TELLMEAFOOKYSTORY (7-5-2)

  7. SHE'S SO FINE, RIOT WORTHY, LEGALLY BAY, JUST GOT OUT (7-4-5-8)

  8. SALORI'S BANK, PROUD LILY, MISS MEDOWBROOK, JACQUELINE D (6-3-5-2)

BEST BET: SALORI'S BANK 8th

BI LIGHT OF DAY (BAL) hasn't been in this light in a long time, if ever, and has a shot at a price. 

SALORI'S BANK (BAL) drops, stretches out, drops weight with apprentice rider. 

 

 

 

 

 

Sunday, February 19

Trifecta computer system Test (this is totally unproven, so I wouldn't recommend betting these right now) all trifectas $1 

AQUEDUCT

RACE 2

6 with 1, 2 with 1, 2 $2

RACE 3

4 key over 2, 3, 5 ($6)

RACE 5

1-4-5 box (1 was scratched, 4-5 exacta paid $45.80)

minus $38.50 totals on trifectas

 

Tuesday, February 14

 

Trifecta computer system Test (this is totally unproven, so I wouldn't recommend betting these right now) all trifectas $1 part wheels

SAM HOUSTON

RACE 1

5-17-127 $6 returned $19.50
5-127-17 $6
17-5-127 $6
27-5-127 $6

572 trifecta paid $39 for $2.00 minus $4.50

RACE 6

2-67-3567 $8
2-35-67 $4
67-2-23567 $10
35-2-67 $4

Trifecta came out 7-6-2

minus $30.50 on the day with one hit

 

.

 

 

 

 

 

POWER PACE METHOD 

Tests note: This is the test I ran for my Power Pace Handicapping book. The picks were posted on this page prior to the day's races, so it was a "live" test. Results are based on $2 win and place bets and when there are numbers after the top pick, those are used in $2 exacta boxes with the top pick. When the pick does not finish 1st or 2nd I simply list it as "out" because I'm not counting show bets. After 44 days, 71 winners-24%, 113 placed-39% in 293 picks ($582.00), total win return $708.70, place return $559.10, $2.00 Exacta boxes, $528.00 wagered, $559.60.00 returned, exactas paid $255.60, $40.80, $11.40, $15.80, $26.60, $14.80, $14.20, $51.60, $24.80, $97.40, $6.60. Six of the eleven exacta hits were "cold." 

So far, pretty amazing...win and exacta profits and a small loss on place bets. The win percentage is 24%. Considering how many longshots I've hit, the win percentage is superb. High win percentages usually lead to a loss. The hit percentage on the 132, $2.00 exacta boxes ($4.00 per wager) is 8%, 10 exacta hits in 132 boxes. I'm not using traditional past performances at all. I'm only using pace and speed figures, no running lines. Of course, how I'm using these numbers is the key. I'm not looking for the fastest early pace horses, I'm not looking for the highest (fastest) speed figures. 

The first day wasn't that good, although 11 of the 23 horses ran first or second. I picked too many favorites. Second day, I cut down on the amount of favorites and hit the exact same win percentage (22%) but two of the winners paid very good, $58.20 and $11.20. I also had a cold $255.60 exacta. In that race, the two horse looked like a legit favorite that figured to be tough to beat, so I listed the race 8-2, which is what came in. I'm only putting a second horse or third horse when I see obvious horses to use in exacta boxes. 

The third day was exceptional as I hit 3 winners in 8 plays and the win payoffs were $106.20, $12.80, and $11.60, plus two other horses ran second and I hit a $40.80 exacta. It's interesting that I've only played exactas in three races and hit two exactas. 

On Thursday, which was the 4th day, it had 4 winners in 17 picks and a profit of $0.40 cents. 

On Friday, the 5th day, 20 picks, 5 winners and 10 places. No good prices so a loss for the day, although the place bets returned $38.90, a small loss. 

On Saturday, 6th day, 7 picks 2 winners and one ran 2nd, small loss, not bad. 

Sunday, 7th day, 13 picks, 4 winners, 5 placed. Not a bad day, a loss of $0.40 cents. It's

Monday, 8th day, two horses, no winners. In the 6th at Delaware I had a tough choice between two horses, the 5 and the 6, and I went with the 6 because it had better overall speed figures (one of the things I'm using to separate these contenders). Well, the 5 horse won and paid $51.40. So for now on if I'm having a hard time deciding between two horses I'll play both of them if the are 4-1 or higher. If both horses are below 4-1 odds, the bet will be the horse that goes off at higher odds. 

Tuesday, 9th day, 8 picks, 3 winners, all at Parx, all favorites, which produced a loss on win bets, five horses placed which showed a profit, exactas, one hit, a loss of twenty cents. I really don't want to include too many favorites but the horses at Parx yesterday all looked like locks on this system, and they all won. 

Wednesday, 10th day, 8 picks, 3 winners returned $13.40 to win, not a bad loss. Interesting that ion two of the races I listed other horses for exactas and they came in so it's a good sign, when my top pick hits I have a good shot at the exacta. 

Thursday, 11th day, 1 pick, out. 

No picks Friday

Saturday, 12th day, pretty good day, two winners in 9 picks, four places and one of the horses paid $26.40 to place

Sunday, 13th day, winning day. 13 picks two winners that paid $20.20 and $13.00. But favorites did poorly losing at 6/5, 1/2, 7/5 and 9/5. I've got to start listing these with a minimum acceptable odds. 

Monday, 14th day, 4 winning favorites but 8 of the 13 horses placed. Two exacta boxes produced one hit at $26.60. 

Tuesday, 15th day, 7 picks, 2 winners and a small loss, one cold exacta hit of $14.80. 

Wednesday, 16th day, 11 picks and on win bets, two winners and a $21.40 return, another small loss, not bad. When you can get back most of your money in a day of betting, that's good. What worries me is when I bet 11 horses and get nothing back! So far this system has been consistent and not that scary, no wipe-out days. 

Thursday, 17th day, I was pressed for time but I came up with 8 picks at four tracks, two of them won at $9.60 and $5.40, another placed and one exacta hit out of six. Again, a small loss on win bets, not bad. 

Friday, 18th day, 4 winners and one exacta ($51.60) in 18 plays, not a good day. Where's those longshot winners that came early on?

Monday, 19th day, 2 winners in 7 plays including a $14.20 winner and two others ran second, profitable day. 

Tuesday, August 4, 20th day, 3 winners in 7 plays and a return of $20.80 on the win bets. 

Wednesday, August 5, 21st day, 2 winners in 10 races, two others ran second, one exacta hit. 

Thursday, August 6, 22nd day, 4 races, no winners, one ran second and paid $5.00 to place

Saturday, August 8, 23rd day, 5 picks, one winner

Sunday, August 9, 24th day, nice day, six picks, two winners, a $97.40 exacta with a horse that ran second at 24-1, and four of the six horses placed. 

Monday, August 10, 25th day, only 1 chalk winner in 6 plays, another ran second. 

Saturday, August 15, 26th day, 0 for 5, one horse ran second at 9-1

Sunday, August 16, 0 for 3 and one horse ran second at 4-1

Monday, August 17, 28th day, 2 picks, no winners. 

Tuesday, August 18, 29th day, bad day, 7 picks, no winners, one horse placed at 7-2 odds. 

Monday, August 24, 6 picks, one winner

Saturday, August 29, great day, one pick, and it won and paid $44.10.

Sunday, 32nd day, August 30, 0 for 2

Monday, August 31, 33rd day, bad day, 0 for 4. Parx has been more speed favoring since it came back from a month off. 

Sunday, September 6, 34th day, very good day, two winners in 3 picks including a $25.20 winner!

Monday, September 7, 35th day, one pick ran second

Sunday, September 20, 36th day, two picks, one ran second

Friday, September 25, 37th day, three picks at Penn National, and a nice $24.80 winner)

Saturday, September 26, 38th day, one pick, one winner, $14.60

Sunday, September 27, 39th day, two picks, no winners. 

Saturday, October 3, 40th day, two picks, one winner paid $3.30 with a cold $6.60 exacta.

Saturday, October 10, 41st day, one pick, one $10.00 winner

Sunday, October 11, 42nd day, two picks, no winners

Saturday, October 17, 43rd day, one pick, no winners

Saturday, October 24, two picks, one $3.40 winner

 

Saturday, October 24

Woodbine

2). 5 Titan 1 (5-1, ran third)

Parx

2). 3 Behr In The Woods 2 (won easily, paid $3.40)

Saturday, October 17

Keeneland

4). 5 Torcida (5-1 out)

Sunday, October 11

Woodbine

1). 6 Wheres The Duke 4 (7-2 out)

3). 4 Del Cielo 3 (5-1 out)

Saturday, October 10

Santa Anita

3). 3 All Star Parade (won, $10.00)

Saturday, October 3

Hawthorne

1). 2 Nagy's Piggy Bank 5 (won $3.40, cold $6.60 exacta)

Keeneland

10). 2 Anythingyoucando 7 (5-2 out...7 won and paid $12.20)

Sunday, September 27

Churchill

5). 5 Fearless Majesty 4 (5-1 out)

Woodbine

10). 14 Sizzling 2 (9-1 out)

Saturday, September 26

Woodbine

4). 2 Notaloneinhishead 5 (won, $14.60, $6.40)

Friday, September 25

Penn National

3). 6 Thirty One Always 5 (won, $24.80, $9.00)

4). 4 Great Life 6 (7-2 out)

7). 2 Deputy Cavalier 7 (ran third at 10-1)

Sunday, September 20

Churchill

3). 5 Purimeter 3 (6-1 out)

Parx

5). 5 Endless Ride 2 (2-1, ran second, $3.20 place)

Monday, September 7

Woodbine

3). 6 Red Fever (3-1 odds, finished 2nd, $3.80 place)

Sunday, September 6

Monmouth

2). 4 More Hundred Acre 5 (won $25.20, $10.60)

Presque Isle Downs

2). 4 Wisenbossy (won $3.20, $2.20)

Woodbine

2). 6 Wild Dyna (ran third at 8-1)

Monday, August 31

Parx

2). 6 Bachman Billy 5 (3-2 out)

3). 9 Bubz Foo Foo 8 (5-1 out)

7). 4 Park Ranger 5 (7-1 out)

10). 8 Speightscity  (5-1 out)

Presque Isle Downs

4). 5 Frosty Girl 8 (5-1 out)

Sunday, August 30

Monmouth

7). 2 S. S. Minnow 1 (7-2 out)

Del Mar

10). 12 Kiss My Face 8 (out)

Saturday, August 29

Woodbine

4). 3 Victory Ring 1 (won $44.10)

Monday, August 24

Delaware

6). 1 Doc Of The Court 4 (5-1 out)

8). 4 Danzig Storm 3 (7-2 out)

Finger Lakes

3). 1 Brasstown Sheriff 4 (9-2 out)

5). 3 Jet Set Cat (4-1 out)

Presque Isle Downs

2). 8 Guy On The Go (2-1 out)

6). 3 Just Too Much (won, $6.20)

Tuesday, August 18

Finger Lakes

5). 5 Who

6). 2 Easy Street

8). 3 Very Accomplished

9). 1 Joy Ride 3

Indiana 

2). 4 Flaming Desire 11

Fort Erie

1). 4 Cajun Kiss

2). 6 One Way Express 3

Monday, August 17

Finger Lakes

6). 7 Two And Twenty 3 (5-1 out)

Thistledown

8). 7 Uncle Virgil (2-1 out)

Sunday, August 16

Del Mar

3). 4 Cat Burglar 2 (ran 2nd, $5.60 place)

Gulfstream

3). 9 Tactica For Ever 8 (9-1 out)

4). 2 Ottauquechee 1 (12-1 out)

Saturday, August 15

Arlington

3). 3 Premura 5 (7-2 out)

Del Mar

2). 5 Warren's Jen Fizz (16-1 out)

6). 4 Baccelo 11 (9-1, ran second, $9.80 place)

Woodbine

1). 7 Baldur 8 (12-1 out)

4). 6 Philip The Tank (5-2 out)

Monday, August 10

Parx

8). 6 Image 1 (17-1 out)

Thistledown

1). 5 N C C Troubador 3 (67-1 out)

2). 6 Big Roques (14-1 out)

4). 5 Diesel Only 6, 2 (ran 2nd, $3.00 place)

5). 6 Jango 2 (won $4.20, $2.60)

6). 6 Baby Wildcat 4 (6-1 out)

Sunday, August 9

Del Mar

4). 2 China Prince 4 (2-1 out)

Monmouth

1). 4 Culminating 6 (8-1 out)

4). 5 Beijing House 2 (ran 2nd at 24-1, $15.80 place, 2-5 exacta paid $97.40)

6). 6 First Ronin 5 (ran 2nd at 10-1 odds, $6.40 place)

Woodbine

2). 7 Wales End (won $5.90, $4.20)

9). 5 Ida Bambina1 (won $13.60, $5.40)

Saturday, August 8

Del Mar

10). 1 Crystal Harbor 2 (8-1 out)

Monmouth

5). 3 Lubango 4 (won, $5.20, $3.00)

Gulfstream

3). 5 Naval Command 2 (2-1 out)

4). 6 Gala Award 5 (7-1 out)

Arlington

1). 5 Tiz Lately 2 (7-2 out)

Thursday, August 6

Belterra

2). 6 My Harlequin Man 5 (18-1 out)

Charlestown

5). 7 Majestic Indeed 5-2 out

Del Mar

1). 3 Avicii (4-1, ran 2nd, $5.00 place)

Finger Lakes

9). 8 Senora de Lolol (7-2 out)

Wednesday, August 5

Del Mar

8). 4 Avo 2 (9-2 out)

Praire Meadows

1). 2 Tournado Lynnie won $3.60, $2.60

2). 2 Damaris 3 (3-2 out)

5). 4 Bluegrass Soul won $6.40, $4.00

6). 7 Tyler T 6 (ran 2nd, $5.00 place)

Thistledown

1). 6 Gypsy Spin 1 (75-1 ran third)

3). 2 Citizen John 5 (5-2 out)

4). 7 Notta Boat 5 (19-1 out)

6). 7 Indielo 6 (ran 2nd, $3.80 place, 6-7 exacta paid $24.80)

8). 5 Gun Roar 4 (9-1 out)

Tuesday, August 4

Delaware

1). 4 Grace Is A Beauty 5 (3-2 out)

2). 6 Mud Slide Slim 4 (won, $9.40, $3.80)

Parx

3). 3 Hisnameisjon 8 (3-1 out)

5). 5 Hey Kiddo 2 (won $4.60, $2.80)

7). 5 Jay Eye See 9 (5-2 out)

9). 2 Goldland 6 (won $6.80, $4.00)

Indiana 

9). 11 Candy Striker (7-1 out)

Monday, August 3

Thistledown

4). 3 Hide n Jane 7 (ran 2nd, $4.60 place)

6). 5 Proper Touch 4 (6-1 out)

Presque Isle Downs

2). 4 Carson's Ten 1 (9-2 out)

Finger Lakes

3). 7 Quiet Power 2 (6-1 out)

6). 4 River Monster (won, $14.20, $6.00)

8). 8 Just Catty 4 (7-1, ran 2nd, $6.00 place)

9). 5 Easy Street (won, $4.10, $2.90)

No Picks Sunday, August 2

No Picks Saturday, August 1

Friday, July 31

Arlington

1). 6 Itzacoldcase 1 (4-1 out)

Belterra

1). 2 Touch Wood 3 (6-5 out)

3). 3 Yankee Diva won $4.20, $3.40

4). 3 Pretentious Belle (5-2 out)

Ellis Park

1). 7 Trawee (ran 2nd, $3.80 place)

5). 2 Precipice Trail (won $5.00, $3.60)

Emerald Downs

5). 6 Shadow Code 2 (6-1 out)

Finger Lakes

6). 3 My Kryptonite 6 (5-1 out)

Gulfstream

5). 7 Rednamite 4 (22-1 out)

Monmouth

8). 5 Bama Bound (4-1 out)

Thistledown

3). 4 Clever Performance 1 (won $4.80, $3.20)

4). 3 Hour By Hour 8 (won $3.60, $3.40)

5). 3 Pearl Of Wisdom (7-5 out)

6). 4 Zipco or 7 Boom de Ya  Da (whichever goes off at highest odds, plus 4-7 exacta box) (6-1 ran second, $6.00 place, 7-4 exacta paid $51.60)

Indiana 

3). 3 Just Likea Bird 4 (8-1 out)

4). 8 Heading To Boca 2 (8-1 out)

6). 10 My Night Flight 3 (7-2 out)

7). 6 Tiaras N Tutoos 2 (19-1 out)

 

Thursday, July 30

Arlington

1). 3 Wall Student 3 (22-1 out)

Belterra

3). 3 Pleasant Trip won $9.60, $4.40

Presque Isle Downs

1). 5 Shopper 3 (ran 2nd $3.00 place, 3-5 exacta paid $14.20)

2). 5 Cowgirl Spirit 1 (6-1 out)

3). 5 Wish To Opine 4 (33-1 out)

6). 4 Miss Twinkle Toes 6 (4-1 out)

7). 3 Ex Con (9-2 out)

Evangeline

7). 6 Rikleiner 3 (won $5.40, $3.20)

Wednesday, July 29

Delaware

2). 7 Catch Me Kaz 6 (5-1 out)

6). 7 Party Starter 5-1 out

Evangeline

7). 4 Powder Road won $7.60, $2.80

Indiana 

3). 7 Hotbutteredsoul 4 (6-5 out)

4). 2 Echo Go 8 (14-1 out)

6). 1 Fear The Kitten (2-1 out)

Presque Isle Downs

6). 2 Wave Catching 1 (15-1 out)

8). 5 Cosmic Karma (4-1 out)

Thistledown

3). 2 Rambo Rib 6 (6-1 out)

5). 2 Flash A Smile 3 won, $13.80, $7.60

8). 6 Slamming Gin (8-5, finished 1st, dq'd placed 2nd, $2.60 place)

Tuesday, July 28

Presque Isle 

2). 8 Tippany 5 won $4.20, $2.80, cold 8-5 exacta paid $14.80

Parx

1). 6 Pearls For Girls 3 (8-5 out)

Indiana

1). 9 Hadda Notion 2 (5-1 out)

2). 3 Wind Rider 7 (won, $9.20, $5.00)

3). 3 Lagoon of Diamonds 2,8 (6.70-1, out)

6). 5 Escalate 8 (2-1 out)

8). 9 Rustica 4 (15-1 out)

Monday, July 27 (I'm still not sure about the odds, I may limit it to 3-2 odds or higher, but I have to do some research. Some of these today may be underlays)

Thistledown

2). 1 Nice Shot won $5.00, $3.60

4). 1 Pretty Heiress 2-1 out

Presque Isle Downs

4). 2 Spirit Of Peace ran 2nd, $4.00 place

Parx 

2). 1 Surfing U S A ran 2nd, $2.60 place

3). 2 So Valor ran 2nd, $3.60 place

5). 3 He's So Fine 9-5 out

9). 6 Litlmisssmartypants 2 (ran 2nd, $3.60 place, 2-6 exacta returned $26.60)

Delaware

1). 6 Slan Abhaile (former class horse won for fun, paid $3.80, $2.40)

5). 5 Cay To Pomeroy 2 (7-2 out....the two horse, my 2nd ranked pick, won and paid $12.00, a good sign even though it produced a losing exacta box)

Finger Lakes

4). 1 Rincon Behr 5-2 out

5). 4 Global Warrior won, $4.70, $3.60

8). 5 Mondor won, $3.00, $2.30

9). 5 Busted Handle (8-1 out)

Sunday, July 26

Del Mar

1). 4 L X Sunrise 6 (6-1 out)

Monmouth

4). 1 First Ronin 3, 8 (7-1 out)

Woodbine

10). 4 She's A Ringer 6 (7-1 out)

Gulfstream

10). 7 Houston Bull 6 (8-1 out)

11). (turf or dirt) 7 Planar 3 (7-5 out)

Belterra (BTP) 

1). 5 Ratina 15-1 out

7). 9 H. J. Arvin won $20.20, $9.00

Canterbury

10). 1 Circus Girl 4 won $13.00, $8.20

Ellis Park

2). 4 Kody With A K 6-5 out

7). 2 Great Stuff 6 (1/2 out)

8). 7 Brown Almighty 5 (7-5 out)

Parx

3). 5 Magic Harbor (9-5 out)

5). 3 Big Variety (5-1 out)

Saturday, July 25

Del Mar

9). 3 Tannersmymuscle 25-1 out

Arlington

5). 3 Read To Me won $8.40, $4.00

Gulfstream

6). 3 Plausibly 5 19-1 out

11). 8 Keyed Cache 10 15-1 out

Monmouth

2). 6 Untamed 16-1 out

3). 4 Flashy Zee 6-1 out

4). 2 Set On Salsa ran 2nd, $3.80 place

10). 10 Mischievious Sophie ran 2nd at 38-1, paid $26.40 to place

12). 4 Perry M won, $10.40, $5.00

Friday, July 24

None today

Thursday, July 23 

Gulfstream

9). 5 Invidia (turf only) 14-1 out

Wednesday, July 22 

Delaware

7). 4 Night Sky (2-1 out)

Evangeline

3). 4 Ems Perfect Ten won $7.40, $4.20

5). 8 Fast Time Streaker 5, 4 (7-1 out) 

Indiana

6). 6 Ali Get Your Gun 1 (7-1 out)

Presque Isle Downs

7). 6 Comancheria 5-2 out

Thistledown

2). 7 Helluva Notion won $3.80, $2.60

3). 1 Morant Bay/My Girl Cassie won $2.20, $2.20

8). 8 Jiddy 19-1 out

Tuesday, July 21

Finger Lakes

3). 3 Local Legacy 2 (8-1 out)

Indiana Downs

8). 3 Federal Agent ran 2nd, $8.20 place

Presque Isle Downs

5). 2 Chosen Heir 5 (6-5 out)

6). 6 Bella Bianca ran 2nd $3.60 place

8). 5 Cosmic Karma 2 (7-2 out)

Parx

2). 4 Marcy won $2.40, $2.20

3). 3 Current Rate 2 (won $4.20, $2.60, Cold $15.80 Exacta)

9). 2 Stevie's Wonder won $2.20, $2.10

Monday, July 20

Delaware

6). 6 Star Blessing (2-1 out)

Thistledown

5). 7 Plazarita 10 (31-1 out, 10 horse won at 2-1 odds)

Sunday, July 19

Arlington

1). 5 Bonita Rita ran 2nd, $4.20 place (9-2 odds)

Belterra

4). 5 Rollin Away Baby 4 (2-1 out)

6). 8 My Miss E. J. 7 (10-1 out)

8). 7 Peach Schnapps won $2.80, $2.40

Parx

2). 5 Edyanne (2-1 out)

Canterbury

10). 3 Summer Swing (4-5 out)

Ellis Park

2). 2 Starship Aquarius 5 ($4.00, $2.80, Cold $11.40 exacta)

5). 7 Lent (7-2 out)

Emerald Downs

1). 1 La Brisa (5-2 out)

Prairie Meadows

2). 4 Itsallaboutyou 5 (13-1 out)

3). 9 My Star Oasis (won, $4.40 $3.00)

4). 3 Runnin Thunder 1 (won, $14.40, $6.60)

Presque Isle Downs

8). 6 Red Hot Quest (31-1, out)

Saturday, July 18 

Monmouth

2). 2 Sweet On Smokey won $3.60, $2.40

Woodbine

4). 4 Drinks After Work ran 2nd, $8.50 place (the exacta with the favorite paid $71.00, note, I need to play the exacta in every race)

Belterra

3). 5 Stormin Greeley won $7.60, $3.60

Indiana

8). 8 Zeven 6 14-1 out

10). 6 All Day Long  8-1 out

Evangeline

5). 4 Catwalk Commando 9-1 out

Ellis Park

3). 2 Casket Model 3 11-1 out

Friday, July 17

Woodbine

1). 2 Fiddlelina 4 10-1 out

3). 2 O Wanderlust ran 2nd $8.70 place

4). 4 Reliably Royal 8 6-1 out

6). 2 Amber Brewski 4 3-2 out

Arlington

4). 5 Legend Forever 3 9-1 out

6). 4 Coramoss ran 2nd, $3.20 place

7). 2 Revolt 5-1 out

Charlestown

2). 7 Country Waltz ran 2nd $2.40 place

4). 2 London By Night won $6.00, $3.60

Ellis Park

2). 6 Swaylon Braylon won $5.00, $2.80

3). 8 Another Trick 3-1 out

4). 4 Rowdy Miss 5 7-2 out

6). Fryers Well won $4.40, $2.20

Belterra BTP

1). 6 Yo Eleven 9-2 out

4). 7 Daves Kind Eyes 2-1 out

5). 3 Bee Bee Q 3-1 out

7). 4 Yankee Diva won $5.20, $4.00

Evangeline

2). 8 Royan Danseur won $5.40, $3.20

5). 9 House Of Cards 7-2 out

6). 4 Classy Cajun 12-1 out

7). 7 Spirit Of A Cat ran 2nd, $4.80 place

9). 5 Twnstrikesinarow ran 2nd, $4.00 place

Thursday, July 16

Del Mar

1). 4 The Mad Hungarian 9-1 out

2). 10 Moscato Girl 14-1 out

3). 4 Ink Well won $12.60, $6.20

4). 8 Calm Pacific 29-1 out

Evangeline

1). 2 Nodic Bull 3/5, ran second, $2.40 place

2). 1 Cape Race won $9.40, $5.40

4). 7 Leave Em Counting won $3.20, $2.10

5). 5 Watch The Gate  6-1 out

9). 8 Pistolera won $9.80, $4.40

Finger Lakes

5). 3 Huge Asset 4/5, ran 2nd, $2.80 place

8). 3 Bullnose Brick 5-2 out

9). 6 Ali's Winner 5-2 out

Gulfstream

8). 6 Divine Energy 5-2 out

Indiana Downs

1). 5 Maxaintasaint 25-1 out

2). 2 Annie's On Tour 5-1 out

4). 7 General Ling 9-1 out

6). 5 In A Jif 3-1 out

Charlestown

1). 11 Phantom Fear

4). 4 Kathy's Limit

5). 3 Razzle Dazzle Man

6). 8 Mr Chase

Wednesday, July 15

Charlestown

2). 6 Race on Birdcee won $106.20, $27.20

4). 12 Holy Boom 5-2 out

5). 11 Charitable Flight

8). Winchester Warrior ran 2nd $3.40 place

Indiana

4). 2 Fupay's Vision won $12.80, $6.00

5). 13 Candywaltz ran 2nd $3.20 place

8). 6 Artsy 2-1 out

Woodbine

2). 11 Live Forever 7-2 out

7). 8 Save My Soul 5, 3 won $11.60, $5.70 8-3 exacta paid $40.80

Tuesday, July 14 (today I'm cutting down on favorites)

Indiana Downs

1). 6 Cody's Parade 5-1 out

2). 8 Sweet And Creamy 14-1 out

3). 8 Wind Rider 7-1 out

4). 1A She's A Pearl ran 2nd $6.00 place

6). 8 Kinker 2 won $58.20, $22.00, 8-2 exacta came in COLD paid $255.60

8). 4 Short And Sassy 9-2 out

Presque Isle Downs

1). 4 Dancing Together won $4.20, $2.80

3). 3 Lazy Nathan 2-1 out

6). 2 Charleston Pier 11-1 out

7). 2 Miss Tapit 13-1 out

8). 6 Jessie's Trick 10-1 out

Parx

2). 6 Lost In Success won $3.80, $2.60

6). 7 Free Will 2-1 out

8). 8 Alissa R N 4 out

9). 6 Generally George 10-1 out

Finger Lakes

5). 10 Paris Sunshine ran 2nd $3.00 place

7). 3 Sir Toby won $11.20, $6.30

9). 8 Letters Of Fire 2-1 out

Monday, July 13 (5 winners, 11 placed, 23 starts, total win return $33.40, place return $42.40)

After one day, not that good although 11 of the 23 horses ran first or second. There were too many favorites. 

Thistledown

1). 4 Swifty Unueax won $3.20, $3.00

2). 6 Overstand 1-1 out

3). 6 R Fast Cat ran third

4). 5 Pretty Heiress 4-1 out

5). 4 J's Two Step Halo 3-2 out

6). 4 Van Damme 6-1 out

7). 3 Comeflywithanangel won $7.40, $4.00

8). Designator 4-1 out

Parx

1). 3 Magic Harbor ran 2nd $4.60 place

3). 5 Jimmy Soul 3-1 out

4). 2 Superlong ran 2nd $3.00 place

6). 1 Scorpion Aly won $11.80, $5.20

7). 1 Magic Soul ran 2nd $5.00 place

9). 10 Beau Who 8-1 out

Finger Lakes

1). 5 Mighty One ran 2nd $2.60 place

2). 5 Snake Pit 1/4 odds, ran out

3). 4 Truly Devoted won $5.00, $2.90

4). 4 Freddie G 7-5 out

5). 2 Freight 4-5 out

6). 6 Signature Seven 5-2 out

7). 8 Crashing Colby ran 2nd, $4.00 place

8). 10 Epiphany won $6.00, $3.80

9). 8 Estimator ran 2nd, $4.30 to place

 

 

The 2013 Preakness Wrap Up by Bob Pandolfo

I gave out the winner of the Preakness on this page and for my subscribers. Oxbow paid $32.80. My Pace Handicapping Longshots book has a method called the Pace Shape Method and that picked Oxbow to win. I tested the method on this site last year and it showed a big profit. I was dead set against Orb in this race for several reasons. One, he had passed exhausted horses with a dream trip in the Derby. 2) He had never raced inside of horses (always outside). 3). He had not shown what I call "brilliant speed" at any point in any of his races. Orb is a good racehorse but he is not exceptionally fast. To bet him down to 3-5 in that field was ridiculous.  Am interesting side note to the Preakness, I believe the Track Bias helped Oxbow. The Pimlico track was favoring outside closers all day and the rail was dead. The riders were yanking their horses to the 3 and 4 path all day trying to avoid the deep rail. If you watch the replay you'll notice that Gary Stevens raced Oxbow off the rail the entire race then moved him into the 4 path turning into the stretch. Since the jockeys thought that the place to be was rallying wide they all took back to make one run but it back fired when Stevens, a masterful front end rider, slowed the pace down to his liking and stole it. I don't think that this is a strong drop of 3yo's. The fastest horses are all bred for shorter distances and don't want to run long, so the Belmont should be wide open. 

Pandy's Preakness Picks by Bob Pandolfo

PIMLICO THE PREAKNESS

RACE 12

6 OXBOW 12-1 MA
7 WILL TAKE CHARGE 12-1
1 ORB 8-5
8 GOVERNOR CHARLIE 12-1

I do not agree with many who feel that ORB is a standout here. I actually think this is a wide open race. 

OXBOW was close to the wicked pace in the Kentucky Derby, actually took the lead briefly and finished 6th, the only horse in the race that was close to the pace and didn't finished up the track; this horse fits one of my best Longshot angles (an angle that is explained in my Pace Handicapping Longshots book, which seems to condition a horse for its next start); upset call...WILL TAKE CHARGE beat Oxbow in the Rebel stakes at Oaklawn. The Diamonds did not come up that good for the Oaklawn races, which concerns me, but the track was very slow. This big colt had to check in the midst of his rally last time and the last time he ran poorly over a sloppy track he came back and won the Rebel; rider change to Mike Smith...ORB had a dream setup in the Derby as a horse was uncontrollable on the lead and set a vicious pace, virtually eliminating the horses that were stalking and setting things up for the deep closers. ORB has trained strongly coming out of the race and should go well. The rail makes it interesting since ORB has always rallied wide. This means that Rosario will most likely drop back and try to work his way to the outside which could cause him some traffic problems...GOVERNOR CHARLIE broke the track record for 9 furlongs winning the Sunland Derby and that race produced the best Diamond Rating (96). The track was lightning fast that day but I wouldn't be too quick to dismiss the Sunland Derby form. You may remember that Mine That Bird was ranked 2nd on Diamond Ratings coming into the 2009 Kentucky Derby, based on his effort in the Sunland Derby, and he won the Kentucky Derby at 50-1 odds. This horse, GOVERNOR CHARLIE is well bred. He is by Midnight Lute, a champion sprinter. Some people will say that he's bred for speed but Midnight Lute is by Real Quiet, a horse who won the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness for these same connections, and the pedigree on the dam's side is regal as she is out of two time champion and Hall of Famer, Silverbulletday, a great race mare who won the Kentucky Oaks and Breeders Cup Juvenile. GOVERNOR CHARLIE trained poorly after the Sunland win so Baffert skipped the Derby but he has trained much sharper since then and he has improved in all three of his starts. 

As for some of the other horses, Goldencents and Itsmyluckyday are certainly fast colts but I wonder if they really want to go this far and the race appears to have a lot of speed, and Goldencents may be setting the pace under pressure. All in all, an interesting race. Many people seem to think that ORB is a lock. I think he's a very good colt but I don't think he's a lock here. 

 

Note, free picks and subscriber picks, which are the same, had a nice 4-1 Best Bet in the 6th race Friday which keyed a COLD exacta,  COLD trifecta COLD $105 double and COLD Pick 3 at Aqueduct as shown below:

Sharphorses Selection Service

Friday, March 22

AQUEDUCT FULL-CARD PICKS

  1. CYBERTRON, CHASING MOONLIGHT, D'SAUVAGE (5-4-6)

  2. LILY LYNN, BLUEGRASS RUMOR, DELIGHTFUL DAWN (4-2-6)

  3. SMOLDERING BEAUTY**, CENTRIQUE, CHANCE ENCOUNTER (3-2-4)

  4. PRECIOUS FRANCA, BOZIQUE, STATELY CAT, BIRD FU (1-5-3-8)

  5. BUDDY JONES, MONEY ONLY, HARLEY(2-4-6)

  6. SHE'S STONES SIS*, BRANDINI, FUNNY MONEY, THERAPY (3-4-10-8)

  7. KILNOCKAGAIN, SWEET SWAY, DISSENSION (6-2-3)

  8. MASASI, SATURDAY NTHE PARK, KARA'S MATCH POINT (4-2-1)

  9. KING KEENE, MIDNIGHT MONARCH, ROARING SEASONS, CHANGE AT JAMAICA (9-1-7-2)

BEST BETS: SMOLDERING BEAUTY and SHE'S STONE SIS 

SMOLDERING BEAUTY (PP)  This 4yo filly chased a fast one in last and held the show; can shake loose here. 

SHE'S STONES SIS (LS) ran evenly in both starts which often indicates the type that wants to run long, stretches out to a mile here and gets good post for sharp barn. 

Race: 6 Win Place Show
1st 3 She's Stones Sis 10.40 5.60 2.90
2nd 4 Brandini 6.60 3.20
3rd 10 Funny Money 2.10
4th 8 Therapy
$2 D/Double 4/3 26.00
$2 Exacta 3-4 54.50
$2 Trifecta 3-4-10 91.50
$2 Superfecta 3-4-10-8 752.00
Refunds: 11
$2 Pick 3 7/4/3 3 of 3 290.50
 
Race: 7 Win Place Show
1st 6 Kilnockagain 16.40 3.60 2.40
2nd 2 Sweet Sway 2.10 2.10
3rd 3 Dissension 2.30
4th 1 My Bella Beauty
$2 D/Double 3/6 105.00
$2 Exacta 6-2 26.80
$2 Trifecta 6-2-3 54.00
Refunds: 5
$2 Pick 3

 

Note that Friday March 8 (below) I gave out another free pick winner which was also my only selection on the Sharphorses Selection Service. The horse went wire to wire and paid $8.80 while winning by 7 lengths.

Sharphorses Selection Service

Friday, March 8

 
OAKLAWN PARK

RACE 6

3 HILARIUM** 8-5
2 BELONG TO B'SAL 2-1
4 S C REDSLEGACY 4-1
5 CONSOLIDATION 10-1

HILARIUM finished third over the track on a sloppy surface in return; drops for high-percentage barn and gets a fast track today...BELONG TO B'SAL ships in from Fairgrounds, cuts back to best distance and makes first start for a tag; key rival...S C REDSLEGACY will be closing...CONSOLIDATION was rank and showed nothing going long in debut; drops into a claimer and adds blinkers. 

DIAMOND SYSTEM PRINTOUT

 

Race: 6 Win Place Show
1st 3 Hilarium 8.80 4.00 3.20
2nd 4 S C Redslegacy 3.80 2.60
3rd 2 Belong to B'sal 3.20
4th 9 Counselor Ron
$2 Exacta 3-4 30.20
$2 Trifecta 3-4-2 77.60
$2 Superfecta 3-4-2-9 390.00
Refunds: None

 

The Belmont Stakes Wrap Up by Bob Pandolfo

I ended up getting a nice price on Union Rags. I made him 8-5 on my line and he paid $7.40. If you look at the Diamond System printout from below, Union Rags had the highest and best Kick Rating of 110. The Kick rating is a strong rating for route races and turf races. I've also put boxes around the Diamond Energy numbers of Dullahan and Union Rags. You can see that out of the top contenders, these two horse projected to have the most energy left for the finish. But Dullahan was rated off of his Keeneland win, and that is an artificial surface which he loves. Dullahan has only two career wins and both were at Keeneland. Diamond Energy is a very interesting rating for route races. In sprints, you can also use Diamond Energy for modeling because there are ideal energy ranges. For instance, at most tracks going 6 furlongs, an Energy rating in the 30's is good. If a horse has a 31 it may be a bit too slow early, and 32 or higher it will be too far back and would need the early leaders to duel and collapse to have a chance. Sometimes the low energy rating in the 29 range is a great longshot indicator in sprints, especially in maiden races because it usually means that the horse flashed high speed. If you see a maiden with a 29 energy and a high ESR (early speed rating) you have a horse that can speed pop and pay a big price. 

Based on the final time in the Belmont stakes, I'd have to think that if I'll Have Another had run without mishap that he would have beaten this field and may have won by a large margin. I'll Have Another looked powerful in his morning gallops over the past few weeks. 

Paynter ran a game race and should improve off of this race, he only has 5 lifetime starts. 

Mike Smith blamed himself for letting the rail open but I knew the rail would open because you're not going to be able to keep a lightly raced colt on the rail while asking him for everything he's got at the same time while going a mile and a half on the lead. Horse's naturally drift out when they're tiring. 

Diamond System Printout (automatic paceline option T)

Pandy's Belmont analysis

BELMONT

RACE 11

3 UNION RAGS* 8-5 LS
9 PAYNTER 4-1
5 DULLAHAN 2-1
1 STREET LIFE 8-1

UNION RAGS had an impossible trip in the Derby and cleared late with strong late foot in the Florida Derby; he is a quality colt with a long stride and he projects to be in perfect position turning for home for new rider Johnny V...PAYNTER has only raced 4 times but he has improved in every start and finished less than 4 lengths behind I'll Have Another in the Santa Anita Derby, which was only his second lifetime start; looks like the one to catch...DULLAHAN has never won on dirt and prefers synthetic surfaces but he did rally to lose the Derby by less than 2 lengths; trainer Dale Romans put a fast :45.4 work into him to sharpen his speed in an attempt to keep him closer to the pace this time...STREET LIFE has been far back in most of his races but he can finish and he comes off fine third in a fast race, which is why he gets the best Diamond Rating. Like Dullahan in the Derby, Street Life did have an good pace set up in last because the pace was very fast in the Peter Pan.

 One thing worth mentioning, the Belmont usually has a slow pace so horses like Street Life, and especially Dullahan, should not be that far back as they've been in other starts. The Belmont is often won by a horse that can hustle into contention on the turn and get within striking distance and the horse that fits that profile the best is Union Rags. As for pedigree, none of the top 4 horses really have a superb pedigree for this distance, in my opinion. Like most horses bred today they all have speed lines on at least one side of their pedigree. The Dosage ratings are Union Rags 3.00, Paynter 2.50, Dullahan 2.50, and Street Life 3.00, very similar. I'll Have Another has a 2.11 and a very good pedigree for this race, but with him out of the race it may be the horse who staggers home the least slowest in the final eighth of a mile. 

The morning line favorite is Dullahan but I personally feel that two year old champion Union Rags, who has 3 graded stakes wins on dirt, deserves to be the favorite. 

Copyright Pandymonium Publications.
For problems or questions regarding this web contact [pandyspicks@yahoo.com].
Last updated: February 22, 2013.