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Pandy's NFL Best Bets and NFL analysis

 

THE NFL 2016 SEASON

 

Teaser record 13-5 +$695.00
Record vs spread in regular picks 7-12

Super Bowl Record: I started posting my Super Bowl pick on my website 16 years ago, 10-6 now. 

Pandy's Super Bowl pick: Falcons vs Patriots, Falcons +3. It's hard to believe that once again I have to analyze a Super Bowl that has the Patriots in it. The last four times the Patriots played in the Super Bowl, I won my bet. I took the points with the Eagles, Giants, Giants. The Eagles covered, and the Giants covered and won outright. Then two years ago I took the Patriots to beat the Seahawks, which they did. (loss)

This year's match up is very interesting, basically the top offense against the top defense. It will be interesting to see how Belichick tries to slow down the potent Falcons offense, which has so many weapons. Matty Ice threw touch downs to 13 different players this season, and they have two good running backs. My guess is that Belichick will drop as many in coverage as possible and let the Falcons try to run the ball. But, he could also trying blitzing. You never know with this guy. 

The Falcons defense is young and quick and they've been playing well the second half of the season. The key to beating the Patriots is usually, pressure Brady. The Falcons can rush the quarterback, but they do it best when blitzing, and the Patriots are a tough team to blitz because they'll use quick passes to get the ball out of Brady's hands. 

Another interesting part of this game, will the Patriots use their potent no huddle offense, or try to slow the game down to keep the Falcons' hot offense off the field? 

The Patriots are the most well coached team, by far, in professional sports. What they've accomplished during the Belichick era is amazing. Some people say they win because of Tom Brady, but Brady missed the 2008 season and he missed a playoff game early in his career, and he missed the first three games of this year. The Patriots record in those games, without Tom Brady playing, is 15-6! And they actually won 8 games in a row during one stretch, without Brady. And in 14 of those wins, they had a second string quarterback who was an average player at best. 

That's the amazing thing about this organization. Belichick has this down to a science, and it almost seems that it doesn't matter what players he puts on the field. He teaches them to win. This year the Patriots quarterbacks have only thrown four interceptions! The Patriots are a team that doesn't make a lot of mistakes.

I do think that the Patriots had the easier schedule this year, when compared to the Falcons. And I think the Falcons offense is so hot, and so talented, that they can move the ball and score on any defense in the NFL. I'll take the Falcons to use their team speed to post the upset. 

Sunday, February 5: Super Bowl. I'll have my Super Bowl analysis later this week but I have a teaser pick already, and I just made this bet this morning (Monday, January 23). 

Super Bowl two team 7 point teaser, Pandy's Pick: Falcons vs Patriots, Falcons +10, under 66. (won)

Packers at Falcons, Pandy's Pick: Falcons -5. I don't like the Falcons as much in this game as I did against Seattle, because Green Bay is hot and they may have a chance in a shoot out, and because everyone seems to be picking the Falcons. But, the Falcons offense just seems too much for the Green Bay defense. The Falcons can run the ball, they have the best wide receiver in football, and their hot QB Matty Ice completed passes to eight different receivers last week. (won)

Saturday, January 14: Seahawks at Falcons, Pandy's Pick: Falcons - 6.5. The Falcons lost to the Seahawks in Seattle earlier this year, but their offense is playing amazingly well. In four of their last five wins, their defense held their opponent to under 20 points, so their defense is playing better. The Seahawks are without their all star safety Earl Thomas. The Falcons offense is well balanced and can attack like no other offense in football. (won)

Wild Card Weekend: Raiders at Texans, Pandy's Pick, Texans -3.5. The Raiders beat the Texans at Oakland 27-20 earlier in the year. That was with their star QB, Derek Carr, who is injured. This game is unusual in that both teams still don't know who will be the QB as of this writing. Oakland's second string QB McGloin hurt his shoulder last week, and the Texans lost their starter due to a concussion. But if Savage can't play for Houston, they have Osweiler, who has played most of the snaps this year. The Texans have the number 1 ranked defense. The Raiders have a high powered offense, but the key is, can they generate that same kind of offense without their all star quarterback? I'll go with the Texans and their tough defense to cover. (won)

Dolphins at Steelers, Pandy's Pick, Dolphins +10. The Dolphins beat the Steelers pretty easily earlier in the season but the Steelers defense is playing much better now, and the Dolphins will most likely be playing this game with their second-string QB Matt Moore. But, the Dolphins have won 9 of their last 11, and one of those losses, last week's poor effort against the Patriots, was not a game that they needed to win. The bottom line is, this is a lot of points when you consider the way the Dolphins have played this year. (loss)

3 team 10 point teaser, $50.00, Texans +6.5...Dolphins +20...Giants +14.5

Week 17: 3 team 10 point teaser for $100.00, Patriots + 1/2...Seawhawks + 1/2....Chiefs +6. (won)

Week 16: Giants at Eagles, Pandy's Pick: Giants +1.5. The line changed from -2.5 to +1.5. These two teams usually play close games, it's a conference match up. And there is the possibility that the Giants will come out flat after two hard fought wins against the Cowboys and Lions. But, the Giants defense has come to hand. In the off season the Giants front office made several moves to bolster the D. The defensive coach, Spagnuolo, is one of the best and he has this defense in playoff lock down mode now. The Giants offense hasn't been as good as it was last year and seems out of synch at times. But, last week, even though they only scored 17 points, the offense looked smoother and the running game was improved. The Eagles have lost five in a row so these are two teams going in the opposite direction. One of these days the Giants are going to get their offense into a rhythm and blow someone out. (loss)

Week 15: Eagles at Ravens, Pandy's Pick: Ravens -5.5. The Ravens need to win this race. The Eagles have problems on the offensive line and their offense is sputtering, not a good thing against one of the better defenses in the NFL. (won but didn't cover, loss)

Jaguars at Texans, Pandy's Pick: Texans - 3.5. The Jaguars have a good, quick, defense, but no offense, which is why they have lost 8 straight games. The Texans have a solid defense, they can run the ball, and they play well at home. (won but didn't cover, loss)

49ers at Falcons, Pandy's Pick: Falcons -14. The Falcons defense has been playing better and they have a potent offense facing off against a defense that isn't that good and falls apart in the second half. (covered easily, win)

Buccaneers at Cowboys, Pandy's Pick: Buccaneers +7. Tampa Bay's defense has developed into one of the best in the league and they are a hot team. The Cowboys have that great offensive line but their passing game struggled against good defenses the last two games. (covered, win)

3 team 10 point teaser, $100, Buccanneers +17...Saints +13...Texans +6.5 (won)

Week 14: 

3 team 10 point teaser for $50, Bengals +5 vs Browns (cover)...Jets +13 vs 49ers (cover)...Redskins +10 vs Eagles (cover) won

3 team 10 point teaser for $50, Texans +16.5 vs Colts (cover)...Broncos +11.5 vs Titans (cover)...Vikings/Jaguars under 49 (cover) (won)

3 team 10 point teaser for $50, Bengals +5 vs Browns (cover)...Bucs + 8.5 vs Saints (cover)...Jets +13 vs 49ers (cover) won

3 team 10 point teaser for $50, Lions + 2.5 vs Bears (cover)...Redskins +10 vs Eagles (cover)...Seahawks/Packers under 56.5 (cover) won

Week 13: Giants + 6.5 at Steelers, Pandy's Pick, Giants + 6.5. The Giants have won 6 in a row. The Steelers have won two in a row but beat two teams that had key injuries at QB. (loss)

3 team 10 point teaser for $100....Lions + 16.5 at Saints...Giants + 16.5 at Steelers...Jets +11.5 vs Colts (loss)

Week 12: 3 team 10 point teaser for $100....Redskins +16.5 at Cowboys....Giants +3 at Browns...Steelers +1 at Colts (won)

Week 11: 3 team 10 point teaser for $100...Cardinals +12 at Vikings...Bills +12 1/2 at Bengals...Miami +9 at Rams (won)

Week 10: 

3 team 10 point teaser for $100...Chiefs +13 at Panthers...Cowboys +13 at Steelers....Texans + 12 1/2 at Jaguars (won)

Week 9: 

3 team 10 point teaser for $100...last week I played a $200 teaser which worked out well but I'm back to $100 this week. Note: The point spreads are the exact same as I got when I made my bet, so these are accurate lines as of 10:45 eastern time on Sunday....Lions at Vikings, Lions +16...Eagles at Giants, Eagles +13...Panthers at Rams, Panthers +7 (won)

Season record against the spread: 2-6. 

Teaser record: 4-3, + $170.00

Week 8: 

3 team 10 point teaser for $200.00, Cardinals +13 at Panthers...Raiders +10 at Buccaneers...Eagles +14 at Cowboys (win)

Week 7: Giants at Rams (in London), Pandy's Pick: Giants - 2.5. This pick is mainly based on the Rams injuries. As for the Giants, their offense finally seemed to mesh last week, or at least start to get in sync, and they are capable of a lot more. (won)

10 point three team teaser, Vikings at Eagles, Vikings +7...Raiders at Jaguars, Raiders +11...Buccaneeers at 49ers, Buccaneeers +10 (loss)

Season record against the spread: 2-6. 

Teaser record: 2-3 -$30.00

Week 6: Broncos at Chargers, Pandy's Pick: Broncos -3. (loss)

10 point three team teaser, Jaguars +11.5 at Bears...Ravens + 13.5 at Giants...Dallas +14.5 at Packers (won)

Week 5: Cardinals at 49ers, Pandy's Pick: Cardinals - 3.5. The Cardinals only have 1 win but offensively and defensively they have more talent, even without starting quarterback Carson Palmer, who will miss this time due to a concussion. (won)

Giants +7 at Packers, Pandy's Pick: Giants +7. The Packers secondary should have its hands full with the Giants talented receivers. (push)

3 team 10 point teaser, Browns at Patriots, Patriots even...Bills at Rams, Rams +11...Bears at Colts, Bears +14 1/2 (push)

Week 4: Dolphins at Bengals, Pandy's Pick, Dolphins + 7.5.  (loss)

10 point 3 team teaser, Jets +13 vs Seahawks...Raiders +13 at Ravens...Giants +14 at Vikings (loss)

Week 3: Texans +1 at Patriots, Pandy's Pick: Texans +1. The Patriots will be using their third string QB. Houston has a solid defense. We know that Belichick is a master coach but this is a tall order for the Pats, even at home. (loss)

Redskins at Giants, Pandy's Pick: Giants -3. The Giants defense has improved, and their offense is one of the best in the NFL. (loss)

10 point three team teaser, Jets + 12.5 at Chiefs (lost)...Denver +13.5 at Bengals...Lions +17 at Packers. (loss)

Season record against the spread: 1-5. 

Coming off a rare losing season on straight bets, let's see if we can get something going for the 2016 season. I skipped the first week but there's plenty of action ahead.

Wow, two tough losses to start the season. The Giants completely out played the Saints but didn't cover (turnovers, bad red zone plays, ouch)

Week 2: Ravens at Browns, Pandy's Pick: Ravens -5.5. Cleveland lost their starting QB due to a shoulder injury and McGown takes over again. He has 2 wins and 17 losses as a starter for the Browns. The Ravens defense was stout in their opening defeat of the Bills and Cleveland may have trouble moving the ball. (loss)

Saints at Giants, Pandy's Pick: Giants -4. This line has dropped so apparently there are bettors who believe that the Saints are improved. They certainly have a good offense, but so do the Giants. The Giants improved their defense over the off season, particularly the defensive line. Although this could be a shootout, I think the Giants outstanding wide receivers will prove to be tough to stop. New Orleans is going with second and third stringer cornerbacks in some situations as their starting CB was injured last week. (loss)

$100, 10 point three team teaser: Dallas +13 vs Skins (cover)...Eagles +13.5 vs Bears (cover)...Chiefs +13 vs Texans (cover)

 

THE NFL 2015 SEASON

Season record against the spread: 13-18, only won on teasers last year

Teaser record: 6-2, + $360.00. Last year my teaser bets were based on $100.00 wagers with a 20% vig and we'll try the same thing this year to keep track of them. 

Super Bowl: Opening line was 3.5. Pandy's Pick, Carolina -4 over Broncos. Carolina basically destroyed Seattle and Arizona, and I think that those two teams were healthier and better than the teams that the Broncos had to beat to get here. The Patriots are well coached but really don't have the talent of the other teams, plus they had some injuries, and the Steelers were also banged up. Hard to go past Carolina. (loss)

My picks sucked this past weekend. My gut for weeks was that the Broncos and Panthers were the best teams but I over analyzed the games, which really gets me ticked off. 

Playoffs, Sunday, January 24: Patriots at Broncos, Pandy's Pick, Patriots -3. My pick is the Patriots, so this may be one of those games when I am routing against myself, because as a fan, I'd love to see the Broncos upset. The Broncos have the better defense and they have an excellent pass rush. The way to beat Brady has always been, pressure him. However, he'll be throwing those short passes, which allows him to get rid of the ball in under 3 seconds, and that negates the pass rush. Now, of course, if Denver gets a big lead, then the pass rush will be tough. This figures to be a low scoring game with the Broncos throwing short passes and running the ball and the Patriots throwing short passes. One big difference, Brady, although past his prime, is still a top QB. Peyton Manning is not. His arm strength is way down and even his accuracy has been off, especially on the longer passes that were his bread and butter. Denver has good receivers but the Patriots defense can force turnovers. If Manning doesn't turn the ball over and has a good game, the Broncos can win. There's also the possibility that Manning comes out of the game and Brock Osweiler comes in. The Broncos beat the Patriots with Osweiler at QB this year. 

Cardinals at Panthers, Pandy's Pick: Cardinals +3. This is a tough one because the Panthers have been dominant this year. But after analyzing the game, the Cardinals have more offensive weapons and a solid defense, and are getting points. 

Playoffs Week 2: Chiefs at Patriots, Pandy's Pick: Chiefs +5. This is tricky because the Chiefs best weapon Jeremy Maclin has an injury, and even if he plays he probably won't have a major impact. That hurts them because he draws double coverage. However, the Chiefs defense has been dynamite. This figures to be a low scoring game decided by which team plays better defense. (loss)

Packers at Cardinals, Pandy's Pick: Cardinals -7. The Packers offense woke up last week but here they face a team that is better offensively and defensively. Although Rogers may be the best quarterback in the NFL, Carson Palmer is a great passer who can pick teams apart. (amazing game, but a loss as Cardinals won by 6)

Steelers at Broncos, Pandy's Pick: Broncos -7. The Broncos defense is the key to their game. Big Ben is hurt but the Steelers QB has played some outstanding games while injured. Still, the Broncos are the better team. (push)

Playoffs Week 1: Steelers at Bengals, Pandy's Pick: Bengals +2.5 (covered, barely....)

Vikings at Seahawks, Pandy's Pick: Seahawks -4. (The Seahawks won the game but did not cover, loss)

Packers at Redskins, Pandy's Pick: Redskins -1. (wow, Packers woke up, loss)

Week 17: No regular picks this week, but I'm going to play a teaser. 

$100.00 3 team 10 point teaser, Broncos even against Chargers....Vikings +13 against Packers....Lions +11 against Bears (all three teams won, easy cover)

Week 16: No picks this week. 

Week 15: Broncos at Steelers, Pandy's Pick: Broncos +7. The Steelers are hot now but let's not forget that the Broncos defense has allowed the fewest yards per game in the NFL this year. (push)

Week 14: No regular picks this week, just a teaser. The 49ers have played better with their new QB and faces a weak team....The Redskins/Bears figures to be a close game as does the Pittsburge/Cincinnati game.... 3 team, 10 point teaser, 49ers at Browns, 49ers +11.5...Redskins at Bears, Redskins +13.5....Steelers at Bengals, Steelers +12.5 (loss)

Week 13: Panthers at Saints, Pandy's Pick: Panthers -6.5. I'll admit it, I just don't like the Saints. They have a terrible defense, and their once potent offense has scored a combined total of 20 points in their last two games. Even though Carolina has their division wrapped up, they are well coached and they should play hard as they try to keep their undefeated season going. 

Broncos at Chargers, Pandy's Pick: Broncos -4.5. Denver's defense is not playing as well as they did earlier in the year but they are solid. Denver ran the ball much better when they upset the Patriots last week. San Diego has been prone to mistakes and their defense allows a lot of points. 

Week 12: Saints at Texans, Pandy's Pick: Texans -3. The Saints have one of the worst defenses in the NFL. The Texans defense has been sharp the last four weeks. The Saints once high-powered offense has been sputtering recently. This match up favors the hot team, The Houston Texans. (won, easy cover)

$100.00 10 point three team teaser, Steelers at Seahawks, Steelers + 13 1/2....Buccaneers at Colts, Buccaneers +13...Giants at Redskins, Giants +8 (push, no win or loss)

Week 11: Chiefs at Chargers, Pandy's Pick: Chiefs -3. I posted this one early. The Chiefs have righted their ship and are back to playing the way they played last year, solid defense, strong running game, ball control. The Chiefs offense is finally clicking. The Chargers have lost five in a row, their defense can be sloppy at times and they have no running game. (Chiefs dominated, won)

Week 10: 

Patriots at Giants, Pandy's Pick: Patriots - 7.5. The Giants have beaten the Patriots three straight times, two of which were in the Super Bowl. But this Giants team does not have the great pass rush that those teams had. New York's defense has been suspect. Offensively, the Patriots are tough to stop. On defense, the Patriots have a solid defense. So we have two good offenses, one good defense. I'll lay the points with the Patriots. (Patriots won by did not cover, loss)

Teaser record: 5-1, + $380.00. Last year my teaser bets were based on $100.00 wagers with a 20% vig and we'll try the same thing this year to keep track of them. 

Week 9: 

Eagles at Cowboys, Pandy's Pick: Eagles - 3. Without Tony Romo the Cowboys simply haven't been very good. Matt Cassel is past his prime and now he'll be wearing a knee brace for this game. I expect the Eagles to apply good pass pressure. The Eagles have a good defense and Dallas is struggling offensively now.  (Eagles won and covered, won)

Falcons at 49ers, Pandy's Pick: Falcons -7. Atlanta started out red hot but they're offense has been prone to mistakes and penalties recently and they've lost two of their last three games. But, San Francisco has all sorts of problems. They traded their best receiver, tight end Vernon Davis. They benched their starting QB and they are going to Blaine Gabbert, who hasn't started a game since 2013. On top of that, the 49ers have key injuries. (Falcons lost)

3 team 10 point teaser for $100, Dolphins +13 vs Bills...Bears +14 vs Chargers....Raiders +14.5 vs Steelers

Week 8: Vikings at Bears, Pandy's Pick: Vikings even. Minnesota has their running game going again and the Bears have struggled against the run. (Vikings won 23-20, win)

Buccaneers at Falcons, Pandy's Pick: Buccaneers + 7 1/2. The Falcons can certainly score with the best of them but their defense is shaky and Tampa has been competitive. (Tampa won 23-20 win)

Giants at Saints, Pandy's Pick: Giants +3. The Saints defense can give up a lot of points and the Giants certainly have the weapons. (Giants lost by 3 points, push)

Packers at Broncos, Pandy's Pick: Packers - 2 1/2. Green Bay has a better offense and both teams have been playing good defense. But Rogers is at the top of his game and Peyton Manning isn't. (loss)

3 team 10 point teaser for $100, Vikings +10....Tampa Bay + 17 1/2....Giants +13

Week 7: Ravens at Cardinal's, Pandy's Pick: Cardinal's -8.5. This line had gone up but I did get 8.5 this morning....Arizona is better offensively and defensively. Baltimore's once great defense has serious problems in the secondary and the offense lacks skill players. Arizona won by 8, loss. 

Jets at New England, Pandy's Pick: Jets +8.5. Unfortunately this line also changed, moving from 9.5 to 8.5, which I got when I bet it Sunday morning, but the Jets are one of the best teams in the league and they may have the answer for those quick short passes that New England is going to throw. I'd imagine that the Patriots will try to take away the Jets running game and crowd the line of scrimmage but the Jets have very good receivers this year. (Jets covered, win)

Falcons at Titans, Pandy's Pick: Falcons -5.5. The Falcons one weakness is their secondary but Tennessee doesn't have the weapons to exploit it and their talented rookie quarterback is not playing this week. I'll lay the points with Atlanta, I got 5.5 on Sunday morning. (Falcons won but did not cover, loss)

Teaser, three team 10 point teaser for $100.00, Jets +18....Pittsburgh +13....Cowboys +13 (covered)

Week 6: Broncos at Browns, Pandy's Pick: Broncos - 3.5. Denver's defense is ranked 1st in the NFL and they have good pass coverage. Cleveland's defense has been disappointing. (ouch, Denver won by 3, loss)

Bengals at Bills, Pandy's Pick: Bengals -3. The Bengals could bounce after a big come from behind win against the Seahawks but they have been ultra consistent so far this year. The Bills starting QB is out for this game. As a Jets fan, I like Rex Ryan, but he's a defensive coach and he meddles too much with the offense. So far the Bills are having the same problems the Jets had when Ryan coached them, they struggle to get first downs and points. Last week the Bills offense couldn't stay on the field and their defense got tired. Now they play a hot team that is good on both offense and defense. I can't see Buffalo getting enough points to win this. (easy cover)

Week 5: 49ers at Giants, Pandy's Pick: Giants -7. The Giants defense is playing very well now that they have their Super Bowl Defensive coordinator back and the offense has plenty of weapons and a quarterback who can make big plays. The offensive line is also playing well. The 49ers appear in shambles.  (loss, Giants won but only by 3 points)

Teaser, $100.00, 3 game 10 point teaser, Bengals +7, Browns + 17, Giants +3 (won, all three times won outright)

Week 4: Cowboys at Saints, Pandy's Pick, Cowboy's +3.5. The Cowboys still have the weapons and offensive line to score, even without Tony Romo. The Saints are struggling. (loss, Cowboys tied the game but lost by 6 in overtime)

Week 3: Buccaneers at Texans, Pandy's Pick: Texans -6.5. The line on this game keeps getting higher, and that's why it's often smart to bet earlier in the week. The Texans should keep the rookie quarterback on his heels in this game. After getting blown out by Tennessee opening week, Tampa Bay beat the Saints in New Orleans last week, but I don't think the Saints are a good team. The Texans played two good teams (Carolina and Kansa City) and although they lost, they were competitive. (Texans won 19-9, covered, win)

Teaser, $100.00, 3 game 10 point teaser, Cincinnati Bengals +12.5, Carolina Panthers + 0.5, Atlanta Falcons +9 (these are the lines I actually got when I made the bet Sunday morning) (all three teams won, teaser covered, win)

Week 2: Rams -3 at Redskins, Pandy's Pick: Rams -3. The Redskins defense played pretty well last week but they lost their best wide receiver and they already had problems scoring. Here they face a very quick defensive line that excels against the run and the pass. On offense, the Rams offense seems improved over lst year. New QB Nick Foles played well for the Rams and his receivers made some clutch catches in traffic. I just think the Rams are a better team. (loss, the Rams still can't seem to play two good games in a row)

Cowboys at Eagles, Pandy's Pick: Eagles -5. This is a good match up for the Eagles because the Cowboys have some key injuries. Dez Bryant, the Cowboys greaet receiver, is out. Two of the Cowboys defensive linemen will also miss this game, one with an injury and the other is on suspension. Last week it was obvious that the Cowboys also miss Demarco Murray, who is now running the ball for the Eagles. The Eagles defense is improving and they can score a lot of points once they get into a rhythm. (loss)

Teaser, 3 game 10 point teaser, Chargers + 13 1/2, Lions + 12 1/2, Texans +13 (won)

Week 1: Jets -3.5 vs Browns, Pandy's pick: Jets -3.5. The Jets made a lot of smart changes during the offseason that should help strengthen their defense, which has been good for years. Offensively, they also added a top wide receiver, and added speed running backs that can catch the ball out of the backfield, something that's been missing for years. The Browns have a solid defense but they have to prove that they can score points, and that may not be easy against a Jets defense that has the potential to be one of the top five in the NFL. (easy cover)

Packers - 6.5 at Bears, Pandy's pick: Packers -6.5. Green Bay is solid all the way around, although they do have to play this game without their top wide receiver. But Chicago lost their all star pass receiver, who is now with the Jets. The Bears defense has a lot to prove and could not stop Green Bay last year. (cover)

Dolphins -4 at Redskins, Pandy's pick: Dolphins -4. Miami figures to keep improving on offense this year and defensively they are solid and they added one of the top defensive linemen in the NFL on the off season. The Redskins don't scare anyone and have a lot to prove. (cover)

 

THE NFL 2014 SEASON

Season record against the spread: 18-13

Teaser record: 3-2 (based on $100 teasers with 20% vig, +$60.00)

Super Bowl Record since posting 14 years ago, (10-4)

 

The Super Bowl: Pandy's Pick, Patriots +1 over Seahawks. I've given out my Super Bowl pick for the past 13 years and I've hit 9 against the spread (9 wins against 4 losses), but I lost the past two years. The last three times the Patriots were in the Super Bowl I picked against them and I won all three bets (twice they lost to the Giants and they beat the Eagles but didn't cover). So my overall record betting against the Patriots both in the regular season and post season is very good. But, this time I'm going with them. (won)

This is an interesting match up for several reasons. First of all, it's unusual that the two teams that made it to the Super Bowl both have sub par wide receivers. Almost every team in the NFL has better wide outs than these two teams. I find that odd. Another interesting point, both of these teams have excellent cornerbacks, the best in the NFL. For the Seahawks, this puts a lot of pressure on their offensive line and their bull of a running back, Marshawn Lynch. 

But we know that coach Bill Belichick likes to take away a team's best weapon. Seattle's best weapon is its running game. Both Lynch and QB Russell Wilson are among the league leaders in rushing yards. There are two things that Belichick will have his defense focus on this Sunday. One is, stop Marshawn Lynch. That means that the Patriots will crowd the line of scrimmage. The other focus will be to keep Wilson in the pocket. Green Bay did a good job of this, and the Patriots will try to do the same thing, although the Patriots don't have as good of a defensive line as Green Bay.

Because New England will crowd the box, they'll essentially try to force the Seahawks and Russell Wilson to beat them through the air. That is the ideal game plan because the Seahawks struggled with their passing game this year. Last year, when they beat the Broncos in the Super Bowl, they had two fast wide receivers but those guys are not on the team anymore. 

So the key to beating the Seahawks is simple: stop them from scoring. When you play the Seahawks, you have to figure that you're not going to get a lot of points. So you have to try to win a low scoring game. The Patriots have a good secondary this year and QB Wilson may have trouble finding open receivers. This year, he often struggled to find open receivers, which is one of the reasons why he runs so much. 

Of course, even if the Patriots do a good job of stopping the Seahawks offense, they still have to score, and they have to avoid interceptions against this lightning quick defense. 

My feeling is that the Patriots are such a well coached team that they'll have a good game plan. To beat the Seahawks, it helps if you go no huddle and the Patriots run the hurry up offense as well as anyone. That stops the Seahawks from substituting, and gives teams a better chance of keeping the Seahawks off balance. But I don't think that scoring will be easy for the Patriots. They're used to moving the ball with short passes, and the Seahawks excel at stopping short passes. And, as I said, Brady doesn't have good wide receivers, so he has to throw to his tight ends, running backs, and slot receivers.

But, the Patriots offense is much more sophisticated than the Seahawks, and has better balance. I think that Seattle will struggle to score and the Patriots will get enough points to win a close, low scoring game. 

 

 

Season record against the spread: 17-13

Teaser record: 3-2 (based on $100 teasers with 20% vig, +$60.00)

Playoffs Championship Sunday: Colts at Patriots, Pandy's Pick, Patriots - 6.5. As much as I'd like to see the Colts upset, my pick is the Patriots. The key to the game is the Colts defense. They have played better lately but when they beat the Broncos last week, Denver's offense just had a terrible game. They dropped 6 passes and Manning was playing hurt. New England will have a strong offensive game plan here and will probably mix it up and keep the Colts defense off blance. The Colts are one dimensional on offense, they have no running game. (won, wow, I got that right)

Playoffs week 2: Panthers at Seahawks, Pandy's Pick: Seahawks -11. This is a lot of points to give for a team that does not score a lot of points, and goes against a tough defense, but one of the Panthers best defensive linemen was injured in practice and is out for the game. The Panthers generally need to play excellent defense and run the ball to win. But Seattle's run defense is actually better this year, ranked 3rd in the league. I just think the Seahawks at home are just too much for the Panthers. (won, Seahawks covered easily)

Colts at Broncos, Pandy's Pick: Broncos -7. This could be a good game if the Colts play big and don't make mistakes, but I'm taking the Broncos to cover for these reasons: 1). The Broncos have a better overall defense. 2). The Broncos have a much better running game, and consequently, a more balanced offense. The Colts are strictly a passing team. The Broncos also do an excellent job of pass protecting for Peyton Manning. (loss)...wow, I still can't believe how poorly Denver's offense performed in this game. This is an offense that was statistically the number 1 ranked offense in history last year! And The Colt defense gave up these point totals in games this year: 51, 42, 42, 31, 30, 28, 27. So, a team that gave up more than 40 points three times held the Broncos to 13 points. Weird. 

Playoffs week 1: Cardinals at Panthers, Pandy's Pick: Panthers -6.5. Neither one of these teams have explosive offenses, but this looks like a good match up for the Panthers. Yes, they have a losing record, but they won their last four games. Last year, Carolina's defense was the second best in the NFL behind Seattle. This year they struggled but in two of their last four wins they held the Saints to 10 points and the Falcons to 3 points, both high-octane offenses. Today they face an inexperienced third string QB and an offense that's struggling. For the Cardinals to win, they need a huge game by their quality defense. But, I think that the Panthers defense is in a better position to dominate the game. (won)

Week 17: Like last week, this week is tricky because not all of the teams have something to play for. I'll try one game. Saints at Bucs, Pandy's Pick: Saints -4.5 The Saints are out of the playoffs but they are a well coached team and I think they'll be ready to play. The Saints have one of the top offenses in the NFL but a weak defense. However, they match up well against a Tampa Bay team that has a very weak offense. The Saints have played better on the road this year than in their domed stadium. If Tampa Bay loses this game, they are assured the No. 1 draft pick. (Saints won but didn't cover, loss)

Week 16: Lions at Bears, Pandy's Pick: Lions - 8.5. The line would be higher, but the Lions have already clinched a playoff berth. However, they still have a chance for a first round bye. The Bears allowed 7 QB sacks against the Saints last week, and now they go to a back up quarterback who hasn't started a game since 2010 and is 1-9 as a starter. (Lions won but didn't cover, loss)

Patriots at Jets, Pandy's Pick: Patriots -10. Normally you'd expect a battle in this division match up but the Patriots aren't the type of team to let up, and they've been improving both offensively and defensively as the season progresses.  Jets offense has been dysfunctional all year. (Patriots won but didn't cover, loss)

Teaser: 3 team 10 point teaser, Lions + 1.5, Patriots even, Packers -2.5 over Bucs. (won)

Week 15: Raiders at Chiefs, Pandy's Pick: Raiders +11. The Raiders are finally playing well, and their pass defense is playing particularly well. They still have to prove that they can play well on the road, but here they meet a slumping Kansas City team that is struggling with its passing game. Kansas City needs the game to stay alive in the playoff picture, but I can see this being close. (loss)

Jets at Titans, Pandy's Pick, Jets -3. Two 2 and 11 teams meet up in a match up of bottom dwellers. But, don't blame the Jets problems on their defense, which is ranked 7th in the NFL. The Jets should be able to move the ball, control the clock, and the game. (won)

Teaser: 3 team 10 point teaser, Raiders at Chiefs, Raiders + 21...49ers at Seahawks, Seahawks even.....Steelers at Falcons, Falcons +13. (won)

Week 14: Seahawks at Eagles, Pandy's Pick: Seahawks +1. Both teams are playing very well but the Eagles quarterback Mark Sanchez could be a liability against this outstanding defense. (won)

Teaser: I like a three team 10 point teaser this week. Ravens at Dolphins, Ravens +13, Chiefs at Cardinals, Cardinals +12...If the line drops to 0 I'll still take Cardinals +10, Seahawks at Eagles, Seahawks +11. (won)

Week 13: Bengals at Bucks, Pandy's Pick: Bengals -4. The Bengals come off two big road wins. This is another big game for them because the are in first place by a thin margin. The Bucs defense is playing better but their problem is scoring. They've lost 5 home games in a row and failed to cover the spread in all of them. (Bengals really messed this up, won by didn't cover, loss)

Raiders at Rams, Pandy's Pick: Rams -6.5. The Rams have trouble winning two in a row, but they lost last week, so maybe that's a good thing. The Raiders pulled off an upset last week but they do not have a good offense and the Rams are a solid defensive team. The Rams also have good receivers and QB Shaun Hill is playing better but must avoid costly mistakes. (The Rams crushed them, won)

Week 12: 

Cardinals at Seahawks, Pandy's Pick: Cardinal's + 7.5. The Seahawks are tough at home but their offense is struggling, especially the passing game, and now they face a top defense that excels against the run. Cardinals are a tough team and this should be a close, low-scoring game. (loss)

Rams at Chargers, Pandy's Pick: Rams + 5.5. The Rams have played some giant games this year but they can't seem to put two big games together. The Chargers are struggling after a hot start. QB Rivers is playing hurt, the offense is in a slump, and today they face a tough and physical defense. San Diego's defense is underrated so we have a potentially low scoring defensive battle here. (won)

Week 11: 

Falcons at Panthers, Pandy's Pick: Falcons -2. Panthers QB Cam Newton was sacked 9 times against the Eagles last week and is hurting. The Panthers offense is in a scoring slump and their once top defense is not having a good year, either. Today they lose one of their better defensive players, rookie tackle Lotulelei, and they are also reshuffling their weak offensive line. The Falcons defense is not very good, but they played a strong game against the Lions two back and won on the road at Tampa Bay last week, so they are playing better. Offensively, the Falcons are strong. (Falcons won by 2, push)

Buccaneeers at Redskins, Pandy's Pick: Redskins - 7.5. These teams usually play each other close, but right now the Redskins are a much better team than Tampa Bay. The Redskins losses have been close and they beat Dallas two back. They are well ranked both offensively and defensively, while Tampa struggles to score points, which is one of the reasons why the only have one win in their last 12 games. (Tampa Bay came up big and upset, loss)

Eagles at Packers, Pandy's Pick: Packers - 5.5. Two high scoring teams meet here but the difference may be at QB. Although Mark Sanchez has played well in his two games with the Eagles, Sanchez is not that good under pressure and the Packers have a good pass rush. Green Bay QB Aaron Rogers has 25 TD passes this year and only 3 interceptions. (Packers blew Eagle out, won)

Steelers at Titans, Pandy's Pick: Steelers -6. The Steelers high flying offense sputtered against the Jets last week but they should be ready for this Monday night game against a team that has a struggling offense lead by a rookie QB who will be minus one of his targets, tight end Delanie Walker, who is out with a concussion. (Steelers only won by 3, loss)

Week 10: 

Broncos at Raiders, Pandy's Pick: Bronco's - 12. Oakland has played some teams tough but the Broncos come off a loss to the Patriots and should be focused here. The Raiders have not done a good job of rushing the passer, and their offense continues to struggle. (won)

Rams at Cardinals, Pandy's Pick: Cardinals -7. The Rams struggle on offense and have to face a tough defense at home this week, and it's the third straight road game for the Rams. (won)

Week 9: 

Eagles at Texans, Pandy's Pick: Texans +2. This is a big home game and a must win game for Houston. The Eagles offensive line is banged up and the Texans should be able to pressure Foles. Houston has enough offensive firepower to score and their defense is playing better. (loss)

Week 8: no picks

Week 7: 

SAINTS at LIONS, Pandy's Pick: Lions - 1.5. The line has dropped steadily this week, probably because of the Sants dominance against the Lions in the past. But this year the Lions are leading the NFL in total defense and have been strong against the run and pass, plus they have 20 sacks. The Lions, who were a high scoring team last year, have not played that well offensively this year, but the Saints defense has given up a lot of points. Both teams will be without one of the top recievers, so defense could be the key to the game. (Lions won by 1 point...some books had the game at 1 point, but...) loss

Teaser, three team 10 points: Texans + 13, Giants + 15, Bears +7. I was orginally going to take the Giants + 7 as a regular pick but the line keeps coming down and 5 points is a bit light, so I'll try them in a teaser. Dallas could bounce off a big win against the champion Seahawks, and the Giants, who were blown out last week, should be trying much harder this week. (loss)

Week 6: I had a tough time finding a game a like this week, so I'm going to try a three team 10 point teaser: Detroit + 12.5, Redskins + 16, Giants +12.5. At some books the Giants are getting 3.5 points, but I'll stick to the Covers.com line as I always do for these picks. 

Week 5: 

FALCONS at GIANTS, Pandy's Pick: Giants - 3.5. The Falcons lost two offensive linemen to season ending injuries last week, and it's tough to patch together a cohesive offensive line in one week. The Giants defensive line is solid and they should pressure a quarterback, Matt Ryan, who has been prone to mistakes the past two years. The Giants secondary has been improving at creating turnovers. On offense, the Giants are figuring out the new west coast offense. (Giants won by 10 points, won)

Week 4: 

SAINTS at COWBOYS, Pandy's Pick: Cowboys +3. The Saints crushed the Cowboys last year but the Saints have lost 5 in a row on the road and they are struggling on defense, while inconsistent so far on offense. The Cowboys can run the ball and may control the clock in this game. I'll take the points. (Dallas won 38-17, won)

GIANTS at REDSKINS, Pandy's Pick: Giants + 3.5. The Giants new west coast style offense finally started to come together last week and it was against a top ranked defense. The Giants defense also played better. This is a division game and these teams play each other tough. The Redskins lost two defensive starters to injuries last week, a cornerback and a safety, and have had a short week to prep the second string d-backs. (Giants won 45-14, won)

Week 3: 

PACKERS at LIONS, Pandy's Pick: Lions -2. Two problems for Green Bay so far this season, their offensive line is not protecting Rogers, and their defensive secondary is not playing well. The Lions play well at home, has a potent passing attack, and their big pass rush will pressure Rogers. (won, Lions won 19-7)

RAVENS at BROWNS, Pandy's Pick: Ravens -1. The Browns have played well so far but not against this type of defense. They can struggle offensively and I expect that to be the case today as they play a sharp Ravens squad and a tough defense that can take control of the game. (won, Ravens won 23-21)

COLTS at JAGUARS, Pandy's Pick: Colts - 7.5. The Colts have played well, losing to the Broncos, and then they made key mistakes, and had bad pentalties called against them last week that cost them the game. The Jaguars played well in the first two quarters of their season but have been pitiful in the last 6 quarters, they have a starting receiver out and an offense that can struggle. (won, Colts won 44-10)

Week 2: 

FALCONS at BENGALS, Pandy's Pick: Bengals - 5.5. The Falcons have some key injures and although their offense did good against the Saints last week, this is a much tougher task against the Bengals big pass rush. (won, Bengals won 24-10)

RAMS at BUCCANEERS, Pandy's Pick: Buccaneers - 5.5. Tampa lost to a talented Carolina team last week but I think that the Rams, who were already limited on offense, are going to struggle without their starting QB Sam Bradford, who is injured. (lost, Rams won 10-17)

BEARS at 49ers, Pandy's Pick: 49ers - 7.5. The Niners open up in their new stadium tonight and they're going to be tough to beat here. The Bears gave up 193 rushing yards to the Bill last week, an ominous sign as they meet one of the NFL's best offensive lines. (lost, Bears won 28-20)

 

THE NFL 2013 Season

After losing the Super Bowl my season record ended 15-19. I started doing this NFL picks three years ago and this was my first losing season. 

 

THE NFL 2012 Season

Note: In 2011 I picked a few games a week (Best Bets) and every post season game and hit a remarkable 61% against the spread.  Last year (2012) my Best Bets went 16-14 and I was 6-3 in the Post Season. All lines are from www.covers.com

 


Super Bowl: 0-1.Best Bets 0-1. Post Season 6-3. Season 16-14. 
Week 20, Playoffs, Recap:
Best Bets 1-1. Playoffs 6-2. Season 16-13
Week 19, Playoffs, Recap: Best Bets 2-1. Playoffs 5-1. Season 15-12. 
Week 18, Playoffs, Recap: Best Bets 3-0. Season 13-11. 
Week 17 Recap: Best Bets 0-1. Season 10-11. Teaser 0-1. Season 6-5. 
Week 16 Recap: Best Bets: 0-2. Season 10-10. Teaser 0-1. Season 6-4.
Week 15 Recap: Best Bets 0-1. Season 10-8. Teaser 0-1. Season 6-3. 
Week 14 Recap: Best Bets 1-0. Season 10-7. Teaser 1-0. Season 6-2. 
Week 13: No picks
Week 12 Recap: Best Bets 1-0. Season 9-7. Teaser 1-0. Season 5-2.
Week 11 Recap: Best Bets 1-0. Season 8-7.
Week 10 Recap: Best Bets 0-1, season 7-7 -$70), all picks 2-2 (season 35-42 (-$820.00), Teaser 0-1, season 4-2 ($160.00)
Week 9 Recap:
Best Bets 1-0 (season 7-6, +$40.00), all picks 2-2 (season 33-40 -$800.00), Teaser none, season 4-1 (+$280.00)
Week 8 Recap: Best Bets 1-0 (season 6-6, -$60.00), all picks 1-1 (season 31-38 -$780.00), Teaser 0-1, season 4-1 (+$280.00)
Week 7 Recap: Best Bets 0-1 (season 5-6 (-$100.00), all picks 2-2 (season 30-37 -$700), Teaser 1-0, season 4-0 (+$400.00)
Week 6 Recap: Best Bets 0-1 (season 5-5, 50%), all picks 28-35 on season. Teaser season 3-0. 
Week 5 Recap: Best Bets 0-2 (season 5-4, 56%), all picks 4-10, season 28-34, Teaser season 2-0. Rough week. I didn't pick a Teaser because it looked so tough and I only had 4 winners against the spread and lost both Best Bets. 
Week 4 Recap: Best Bets: 1-0 (season 5-2, 71%), all picks 2-2 (Season 24-24), Teaser 1-0, (Season 2-0). $100 bets on each, Best Bets +$480.00, All picks -$240.00, Teasers +$200.00. 
Week 3 Recap: Best Bets 1-0 (season 4-2, 67%). All games 10-6 (63%), Teaser 1-0. Season 22-22 (50%). Very good week, 10 wins and 6 losses and I went one for one on Best Bets with an easy win by the Giants. 
Week 2 Recap: Best Bets: 2-0 (season 3-2). All games 6-6 (three pushes don't count towards percentage), season 12-16. I hit both Best Bets this week. 
Week 1 Recap: Best Bets 1-2. All games 6-10. Rough start to the season after week one but last year when I just did Best Bets I started out ice cold then got hot. 

 

Pandy's NFL 2011 Wrap Up

The Giants win over the Patriots pushed my record for the year to 33 wins against 21 losses against the spread for a 61% hit rate, which is an extremely high win percentage for sports betting. 

Millionaire professional sports bettor Billy Walters claims to have a win percentage of 58%. I have picked the Super Bowl on my website for the past 11 years and I've hit 9 Super Bowls against the spread (82%). The Super Bowl is a bit easier to pick than the regular season because during the season teams go through ups and downs and slumps so the best team doesn't always win. 

You have to give the Patriots credit, they are an extremely well coached and well run organization. They are the greatest team of their era and they consistently beat teams that have more talent on the field. In my opinion, the Giants have much more talent than the Patriots, yet the Patriots had the lead with less than 4 minutes to play. The Patriots don't have a top running back or a top wide receiver and their defense is young and inexperienced, yet they only lost 4 games all year. 

I'm disappointed that Aaron Rogers won the MVP award. Rogers is a great player I felt that Eli Manning deserved the MVP award this year. 

PANDY'S SUPER BOWL ANALYSIS

Giants + 3.5 over Patriots (at Indianapolis)

I'm picking the Giants here and I bet early before the line dropped because I think the line will move lower and it would not surprise me to see the Patriots 2 to 2.5 pt favorites on game day. I think you could make a good case that the wrong team is favored, but the odds makers make the line based on how the money will be bet, not on which team is the strongest. A key factor, the Patriots only played two teams with winning records during the season and lost both of those games, including the loss to the Giants in November. 

A few points I'd like to address. First of all, I've read some remarks on boards and from the media about reasons why the Patriots will win that go something like this..."The Giants already beat the Patriots this year and it's hard to beat a great team two times in one season" "Bill Belichick has never lost to a team twice in one season" "Tom Brady wants revenge for when the Giants ruined the Patriots unbeaten season in the 2008 Super Bowl"

Let me say that these "reasons" for liking the Patriots are the reason why most bettors lose money; they are inconsequential and meaningless. Tom Brady is not going to try harder in this game because of any stupid revenge factor. It's the Super Bowl. Both teams are going to be playing their hearts out. Bill Belichick is a great coach but even if its true that one of his teams never lost to the same team twice in one year, that's also meaningless because there's a first time for everything. All this stuff about revenge, it's nonsense. 

There are two types of Super Bowls. A). One team is clearly superior and they win by out playing the other team, because they're better. B). The two teams are very closely matched and one team gets more lucky breaks (turnovers) than the other team and they win. If you look at the championship games from Sunday, both games were as close as you can get. The winning teams had better luck, the Ravens missed a field goal and had the winning touch down knocked out of the receivers hand, and the 49ers punt returner handed the Giants the win with two turnovers. Both games were B games, luck decided the outcome. 

So, in the Super Bowl, if it's a close game all the way, either the Giants or the Patriots will make one or two key mistakes that cost them game. Or, one team will play much better and win the game because they are the better team. I would say that around 70 to 75% of the Super Bowls are "A" games where one team is clearly better than the other team. 

Here's my analysis: First of all, the Giants beat the Patriots 24-20 when they met in November. In that game, which was played in New England, the stats on 1st downs, passing yards, running yards were almost identical. The Giants had 23 first downs, the Patriots had 23 first downs. The Giants ran for 111 yards, the Patriots ran for 106 yards. The Patriots had 82 yards more passing. Eli Manning was not sacked, Brady was sacked twice. 

So the first meeting between these two teams was close. 

A few key changes this time around. 1). The Patriots defense, which is ranked as one of the worst in football, is playing much better now. 2). The Giants defense, which is not well ranked either, is playing much better now. 3). The Giants played without their top rusher, Ahmad Bradshaw in the first matchup. 4). The Giants also played without wide receiver Hakeem Nicks  in the first matchup. Nicks finished the season 12th in the league in receiving despite missing several games. 

The Patriots finished 2nd (behind New Orleans) in total offense. The Giants were 8th in total offense. But to my eyes, the Giants have more speed on offense. The Patriots pile up a lot of yard with short passes. The Giants can strike long with fast wide receivers. 

Neither team put up great defensive stats on the season. The Patriots was ranked 31st, the Giants defense was ranked 27th. But both teams have improved on defense. The Giants defense is really the key to this game. Both teams have potent scoring potential. But the Giants defense has been playing brilliantly in the playoffs. They held the powerful Green Bay offense to 20 points. They tossed a shutout against the Falcons in the 24-2 win, a tremendous defensive achievement. If you look the Giants last 5 games, all wins, the defense has given up an average of 13 points a game. The defensive front is as good as any in football, especially for rushing the quarterback. The secondary, which was terrible at times earlier in the year, has been playing extremely well. 

Of course another key to beating the Patriots is keeping the ball out of Tom Brady's hands. The Giants running game did not do well this year but has picked up steam in the playoffs, averaging 117 yards a game. I actually expect both teams to run the ball quite a bit. Truth is, both of these teams can control the clock, so that may be a toss up. But I think the Giants edge in Team speed, especially on offense, and their overall edge on defense, both in experience and talent, should make them tough to beat. 

 

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Last updated: February 22, 2013.